,By Leigh Robertson

If you happened to be in Cape Town over the summer holidays, or live here, you might have been suitably miffed by the barrage of jagged-edged cold fronts that crept over the peninsula, one after the other, over Christmas, over New Year, between and, yes, after.

How many people invested their hard-earned pennies in an end-of-year seaside holiday at the Cape, dreaming for months before about those long, hot days soaking up the sun, cocktail in hand, and getting... an all-over, golden tan!

Pity the poor kids, especially those who'd come from afar, from foreign snow-bound countries, anticipating the joys of swimming pools and watermelon fights, the endless sweltering summers that all of us who grew up in South Africa would experience year in, year out, come December.

I saw them. Sad little boys and girls wrapped up against the cold, noses pressed against the rain-sodden windowpanes, waiting, waiting, just to go outside and play. Forget the damn pool!

Of course, come July, it's going to be all balmy days and mosquito-ravaged nights. But then, sensible folk these days always dress in layers, never forgetting something cool and light for those freezing cold days when, suddenly, the sun peeks out from behind a cloud. In January, in addition to your cooler bag and umbrella, a poloneck jersey and winter coat will almost certainly come in use at some point during your day at the beach!

Whether the weathermen say so or not, my friends and I are convinced that the seasons are a-changin' (and that's not just in one day). They're about as predictable as the IT industry and I don't think I'd invest my life savings in them if they were listed.

Climate change is happening all over the world and, even though President George W. Bush doesn't think it exists, global warming is cited as the primary culprit.

Global Warming: What The Scientists Predict

  • Rising temperatures will cause decreases in agricultural productivity in the tropics and sub-tropics, with food shortages - followed by hunger, starvation or death - the result.
  • Climatic extremes will become more frequent with greater extremes of drying and heavy rainfall.
  • Increased risk of floods, particularly affecting India, China and Bangladesh. Remember the floods in Mozambique? There'll be more babies being born in trees in years to come.
  • Increased risk of droughts that occur with El Nino. Crops will fail and there'll be the inevitable result of hunger, starvation or death.
  • Sea levels will rise between 0.09 and 0.88 metres over the next 100 years, destroying some ecosystems and threatening many flat island communities.
According to a new report by the United Nations, issued by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), "the impact of global warming is more severe than first thought and the aftershocks of climate change will have a profound impact for centuries."

And according to UN Environment Programme executive director Klaus Topfer, "the scientific consensus presented in this comprehensive report about human-induced climate change should sound alarm bells in every national capital and in every local community."

Apparently, what we're experiencing now is a luxury holiday in Mauritius compared to the nightmare picture (think, to extend the metaphor, a budget weekend in Beirut) of the not too distant future. Most of us will live to see this all happen. Hopefully so will George W. Bush, but then it'll be too late anyway.

Across the world sea levels and temperatures will continue to rise, putting pressure on agricultural production and straining already scarce water resources.

The main culprit is carbon dioxide, the most prevalent of the so-called "greenhouse gases", which has, says the report, surged by 31 percent since 1750, a rise unparalleled in the last 20 000 years. Current concentrations of the gas are at levels likely to have been unsurpassed for 20 million years, with 75 percent of carbon dioxide emissions caused by fossil fuel burning and the remainder by deforestation.

The report states that the earth's temperature has risen by an average of one degree Celsius each decade since the 1950's, with "the 1990s likely to be the warmest decade and 1998 the warmest year on record since 1861."

Scientists have warned that the global climate changes of the forseeable future "will be large and their implications ominous."

Another ice age on the cards? Not just yet, but we will have to deal with more droughts and floods worldwide. Apparently, the rise in the earth's temperature will push sea levels up between 0.09 and 0.88 metres over the next 100 years.

Changes such as these will, according to the UN's report, "be enough to destroy some ecosystems and swallow others, with the world's coral reefs likely to die if sea temperatures increase by as much as one degree Celsius and flat island communities such as the Maldives expected to be threated."

The worrying part is that few developed nations have ratified the Kyoto Protocol, the UN's cornerstone treaty on global warning, with only a handful of nations such as Britain and Germany on track to cut their emissions of greenhouse gases over the next decade.

In South Africa Global Warming can hardly be said to be a priority - I mean, what about all the poverty and crime? With economic growth numero uno all round, what the hell, we'll be sending out as many carbon dioxide emmisions as we can possibly manage.

In the meantime, stop procrastinating about that trip to the Maldives! In ten years time, when you finally decide to use your accumulated leave, the islands might no longer be there!